Barack Obama went four for four last night in the ongoing primary season. He won in Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington and in the far south Virgin Islands showing yet again that he can win across the country and throughout all demographics.However, the big story is how large his victories were. He nearly won 70% of the vote in Nebraska and Washington. In addition, he won by 57% in Louisiana and close to 90 percent in the U.S. Virgin Islands. These wide margins are important because they give him more delegates than if the victories were closer.
This adds to his already growing momentum to propel him into the "Potomac primaries" (Maryland, Virginia and D.C.) where he is favored to win in all three. If he can pull off all three wins then that will be 7 in a row and gives him a resounding vote of confidence. It would be difficult to ignore that kind of beating and could finally be the push that he needs to go over the top to gain the nomination.
He is by far the best Democratic candidate to go up against John McCain as he can compete with McCain for independents that would otherwise be heavily favored to side with McCain versus Hillary.
The polls are proving Obama's better electibility. A new Time magazine poll showed Hillary tied with McCain in a general election at 44%. However the poll shows Obama beating McCain 46% to 39%. A CNN poll showed the race tight too between Clinton and McCain with Clinton three points ahead 50% to 47%. That being said, the same CNN poll has Obama ahead of McCain by 8 points 52% to 44%.
Hillary is relying heavily now on bashing Obama's inspiration and ability to channel people's dreams as the only plank to his platform. She speaks of him as if he's nothing more than a motivational speaker with no ideas. She knows very well that he has ideas and good ones, just look the debates, not to mention looking at his website. I guess that is too much research to ask Americans though.
Hillary knows that she's misrepresenting Obama and she doesn't seem to care but what's new with the Clinton's. She seems to be betting that her large section of supporters who are less educated won't look into her claims. She should be ashamed of herself but she has shown time and time again that she can't be trusted by doing whatever it takes to win, including misleading people at every turn. I realize that every campaign spins the message but she bends the truth to the breaking point and gleefully snaps it into pieces.
One more thing, I find it ironic that McCain keeps saying, "my friends" to the GOP base when a large chunk of them hate him.
UPDATE: Hillary Clinton's campaign manager steps down as rumors swirl around that people are unhappy in camp Clinton. Campaign shake ups are sometimes good to get a campaign back on track but usually they are a sign of trouble, especially in the heat of a protracted race such as this one. Whether it was needed or not it looks desperate.
UPDATE 2: Obama is the projected winner in the Maine caucus. While the Pine Tree state doesn't have a lot of delegates, it is none the less a big victory for Obama. There are several reasons that I say this. First, he won again (like yesterday's victories) by a large margin (58% to 41%) garnering him more delegates then a close win would have. Second, New England has long been seen as Clinton country and to that end she has won both New Hampshire and Massachusetts. His victory today also adds to the momentum that he gained coming off his three out of three wins yesterday as well as the Virgin Islands.
It will be interesting to see what the polls in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania say In the wake of this two-day Obama tsunami. It is starting to look perhaps like momentum is getting away from Hillary. The perceived advantage that many "experts" say the Clinton camp has in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania might crumble from the weight of this Obama surge.
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3 comments:
One thing that the polls don't reflect is: The wingnuts will come out in hordes to vote against Hillary in the general election.
If the dem nomine is Obama however, they will either stay home or actually VOTE FOR HIM!
Prediction: If it ends up being Obama vs. McInsane, then its a dem landslide.
If it's Hillary.....hold on, it may come down to hanging chads.
Great post, James. I note, btw, that political markets have moved sharply toward Obama -- who is now a 2 to 1 favorite over Clinton, where as Clinton was slightly favored as recently as the day after Super Tuesday.
I think 'undeniably liberal' points out something very valid: Clinton's nomination would stoke wingnut Republicans to get out the vote. And I would add that polls are further skewed against Obama since the polls are almost always phone polls that don't connect with cellphones which young people use to a much greater degree than their elders. A portion of Obama's intense supporters are twentysomethings, as we know.
I am hopeful, but even if Obama sweeps from here out, the Clintons are plenty ruthless and will try to stongarm the Superdelegates. It is this year or never for Hillary.
I just hope this doesn't come down to superdelegates.
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